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高盛：变化中的中国(英文20 页)

2013-12-16

高盛：变化中的中国(英文20 页)

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Changing China

From the editor: Faced with daunting challenges to the sustainability of the old economic growth model, the new Chinese leadership recently announced what is arguably the most ambitious reform blueprint in several decades. The questions of

whether these reforms will be effectively implemented and if they will be sufficient to create sustainable growth for China are Top of Mind. We circle back with Chinese political expert, Cheng Li, who remains optimistic that reforms will be pushed through out of economic and political necessity. Our China economics team largely shares his optimism, emphasizing that the significance of the reform blueprint itself cannot be underestimated, but implementation will be key to creating enduring growth. We then assess asset implications of reforms: likely higher China equities, rates, and (at least initially) currency, but a potential drag on commodities.