麦肯锡：金融全球化，后退或者重置（英文，92页）

Financial globalization: Retreat or reset?

• Global financial assets—or the value of equity-market capitalization, corporate and government bonds, and loans—have grown by just 1.9 percent annually since the crisis, down from average annual growth of 7.9 percent from 1990 to 2007 (Exhibit 1). This slowdown is not confined to deleveraging advanced economies; surprisingly, it also extends to emerging markets.

Exhibit 1

• Several unsustainable trends—most notably the growing size and leverage of the financial sector itself—propelled much of the financial deepening that occurred before the crisis. Financing for households and corporations accounted for just over one-fourth of the rise in global financial depth from 1995 to 2007—an astonishingly small share, since providing credit to these sectors is the fundamental purpose of finance.
• Cross-border capital flows have collapsed, falling from $11.8 trillion in 2007 to an estimated $4.6 trillion in 2012 (Exhibit 2). Western Europe accounts for some 70 percent of this drop, as the continent’s financial integration has gone into reverse. Eurozone banks have reduced cross-border lending and other claims by $3.7 trillion since 2007, and central banks now account for more than 50 percent of capital flows within the region.

Exhibit 2

• Even beyond Europe, global banking is in flux. Cross-border lending has fallen from $5.6 trillion in 2007 to an estimated $1.7 trillion in 2012. In light of new capital and regulatory requirements, many banks are winnowing down the geographies in which they operate. Commercial banks have sold more than $722 billion in assets and operations since the start of 2007; foreign operations make up almost half of this total. Expanding the debt and equity capital markets will take on greater urgency as banks scale back their activities.
• Emerging markets weathered the financial crisis well, but their financial-market development has stalled since 2008. As of 2012, their financial depth is on average less than half that of advanced economies (157 percent of GDP, compared with 408 percent of GDP), and this gap is no longer closing. Capital flows involving emerging markets, however, have largely rebounded. We estimate that in 2012, some $1.5 trillion in foreign capital flowed into emerging markets—32 percent of global capital flows that year, up from just 5 percent in 2000—surpassing the precrisis peak in many regions. Capital flowsoutof developing countries rose to $1.8 trillion in 2012. Although most outflows are destined for advanced economies, $1.9 trillion in “South–South” investment assets are located in other developing countries.
• With the pullback in cross-border lending, foreign direct investment from the world’s multinational companies and sovereign investors has increased to roughly 40 percent of global capital flows. This may bring greater stability, since foreign direct investment has proved to be the least volatile type of capital flow, despite a drop in 2012.

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