摩根斯坦利：2014美国酒店业发展展望(英文65 页)

    2014-01-22

    摩根斯坦利：2014美国酒店业发展展望(英文65 页)

    betway必威体 @51paper
    betway必威体 @51paper

    to accelerate to 6.3% growth in ‘14 (from ~5.5% in ‘13),
    driven by improving employment and business spend.
    MS strategists expect the S&P500 to rise 9% in ‘14. As
    Lodging has historically outperformed the S&P when
    RevPAR accelerates, the avg upside for our Lodging
    coverage PTs is 11%. Notably we expect all the ccorps
    to outperform current consensus, and we favor
    US exposure over non-US given relative R/R in ‘14.
    Upgrading MAR to OW, Reiterating OW HOT / DRH,
    Initiating on HLT at EW. We believe all these stocks
    offer attractive (>12%) upside to our PTs but view MAR
    as the best play for ’14 given high US exposure and
    highest structural multiple / attractive FCF yield. We
    don’t include asset sales in any of our PTs, which could
    disproportionally help HOT / HLT / DRH.
    Multiples. From ‘04-‘07, Lodging companies largely
    maintained their multiples throughout the cycle. While
    multiples are higher today, we believe that this is
    warranted given higher ROICs, FCF, and SS margins
    this cycle than last. We also believe there are 3+ years
    left in the cycle. As a result, we assume ’14 multiples
    will extend to ’15 for the C-corps. For REITs, we have
    lowered multiples slightly for co’s that are still ramping
    renovations in ’14. DRH is still our favored REIT.
    Continue to be more cautious on “group” segment,
    despite rising optimism. Based on our Sept ‘13
    AlphaWise survey of convention planners, we continue
    to be relatively more cautious on group trends in ‘14.
    Hence, we remain EW Hyatt (~50% group) despite its
    cheap multiple / high operating leverage.
    betway必威体 @51paper
    [报告关键词]： 酒店
    betway必威体 @51paper

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