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德意志银行：德国经济一切安好(英文28 页)

2014-05-15

德意志银行：德国经济一切安好(英文28 页)

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Private consumption in 2014: Still a pillar of growth at 1.2%. The wage agreement in the chemical sector with a pay increase of 3.7% for 14 months was a strong signal. In the public sector the increase was a very decent 3%. However, it is unlikely that the other 8m employees, where contracts are up for negotiation will get pay increases near the chemical sector’s wage hike. Still, negotiated wages should rise by 2.6% in 2014 and thus somewhat faster than in 2013 (2.2%). Given the continued strong employment build-up and slight increase in hours worked disposable income should grow by 2.5% even though monetary social benefits and income from self-employment and from investment are expected to rise only at a sub-par rate. Due to the falling inflation rate this allows real private consumption to rise by 1.2% in 2014, and might even have some upside potential. Consumption will, thus, remain the pillar of overall growth.

The federal budget target: No new debt from 2015. From 2015 the federal government plans to deliver a balanced budget with no net borrowing. This year the federal budget will already run a structural surplus. The additional spending agreed during coalition talks can be funded – at least in this legislative period – without new borrowing via higher revenues, the release of reserves and the shifting of funds between the federal budget and the social security schemes. Social security contribution rates will be raised significantly during the next legislative period at the latest. Budgetary risks arise from higher interest rates and a weakening economy, as the budget includes barely any reserves for them while being exposed to potential additional spending on adjustments that need to be made to the minimum subsistence level (basic personal allowance) and children's allowance or for increases that need to be made to infrastructure spending. Budget surpluses which, given the good economic situation and the grand coalition's broad majority, would have been possible and necessary in view of the tangible demographic burden that will materialise from the end of the decade have fallen victim to the special interests of the coalition parties.

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